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July 11, 2013

Box Office Update – Pacific Rim (2013)

by Master Pillow

With the movie opening tomorrow here in Canada/USA there seems to finally be some positive news as it looks as if there is a chance that the movie will surprise at the box office.  On-line ticketing service Fandango has announced that Pacific Rim is tracking to be the number one anticipated new film of the weekend and so far it is grabbing approximately 60% of advance sales at the site.  If that number holds it has a shot of equaling World War Z’s opening as Pacific Rim is running slightly ahead of it at the same time in its pre-release cycle.

If that comes to pass we’d be looking at around $60-65 million for its opening weekend with Grown Ups 2 probably pulling in $45 million.  It is still too early to call if this uptick in Pacific Rim sales will translate into big box office numbers but if it hits $60 million there will be many relieved executives over at Warner Brothers.  A solid 3x multiplier gets the film to $180 million which would be a triumph considering it has been weakly tracking for months.

That’s because the film looks poised for strong word of mouth as the critics have spoken propelling it to a 75% fresh rating over on Rottentomatoes.  By comparison Adam Sandler’s Grown Ups 2 is running an amazing….zero.  Yes, that’s ZERO.  Although it is sure to rise into the single digits that is never a good sign and will place the film squarely against the current biggest stinker of the summer, After Earth which sits at 11%.

One thing is for certain and that is so far Pacific Rim is earning kudos from many disparate sources including Metal Gear creator Hideo Kojima who tweeted his praise as well as…Kayne West?  Yeah, Kayne also tweeted his thoughts that the film has become one of his favorites of all time.   Will any of this help?  Well, it can’t hurt…

However, not everything seems rosy either as many box office prognosticators and well-known entertainment sites such as Variety are still predicting low numbers, even as low as $25-35 million.  Anything less than $40 million is a kiss of death unless something miraculous happens overseas and it breaks out big time.  If Pacific Rim hits $25 million heads are going to roll as Warner will take a massive loss and it is going to discourage studios from gambling on expensive new IPs.

We’ll know more come Friday when the early box office numbers start to trickle in.

As for my box office prediction, I’m going to be hopeful this time around and say $42 million.  The blitz marketing campaign has certainly helped as well as the positive reviews although I’m still not sure how casual moviegoers will react to this new IP.

© 2013 The Galactic Pillow

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